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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2024-07-18T19:01Z

Model Inputs:
2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-17.0, Lat.=7.0, Speed=853.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-07-17T02:36Z
2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=538.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-07-17T05:04Z
2024-07-17T07:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=488.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2024-07-17T14:42Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-19T13:30Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) = 17.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.9
Possible Kp index:
(kp)90=4
(kp)135=6
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with estimated shock arrival time 2024-07-20T18:56Z
Parker Solar Probe with estimated shock arrival time 2024-07-18T07:37Z
STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2024-07-19T15:11Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note :
Simulation results indicate this CME will impact Bepi Colombo at 2024-07-18T14:33Z (plus/minus 7 hours).

Submitted on 2024-07-18T22:25Z by Hannah Hermann

A Notification with ID 20240718-AL-002 was sent on 2024-07-18T23:05Z


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