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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2024-10-03T18:04Z
Model Inputs: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=963.0, HalfAngle=60.0, Time21.5=2024-10-02T02:29Z 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=863.0, HalfAngle=53.0, Time21.5=2024-10-03T16:29Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-10-04T01:18Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -53.6 hr] Duration of disturbance (hr) = 25.6 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.1 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=7 (kp)135=8 (kp)180=9 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-04T00:37Z Mars with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-05T01:39Z STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-03T20:22Z [PE: -47.1 hr] Solar Orbiter with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-02T18:00Z (Glancing Blow) Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Note : This is a 2-CME SHOCK measurement for SEP model support. For 2.0AU CME BULK impacts, see: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33674/1 and https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33705/1 | This 2-CME SHOCK simulation was run to determine if CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z would be altered by the initial front of CME 2024-10-01T23:09Z, and from timeline inspection we do see the Earth arrival of the second shock was pushed from 2024-10-05T21:49Z (1-CME simulation) to 2024-10-05T18:00Z (2-CME simulation). All directly listed impacts to locations are from the initial front, as both fronts did not combine. Submitted on 2024-10-03T18:26Z by Tony Iampietro No Notification has been sent for this activity yet. |
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