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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 5.5 AU with Completion Time:
2024-10-03T18:28Z
Model Inputs: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=963.0, HalfAngle=60.0, Time21.5=2024-10-02T02:29Z 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=863.0, HalfAngle=53.0, Time21.5=2024-10-03T16:29Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-10-04T00:41Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -54.2 hr] Duration of disturbance (hr) = 24.7 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=7 (kp)135=8 (kp)180=9 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-03T23:45Z Mars with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-05T01:31Z STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-03T19:52Z [PE: -47.6 hr] Juno with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-15T08:00Z (Glancing Blow) Solar Orbiter with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-02T18:00Z (Glancing Blow) Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_023000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif Note : This is a 2-CME SHOCK measurment for SEP model support. For 5.5AU CME BULK impacts, see: and https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33706/1 | This 2-CME SHOCK simulation was run to determine if CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z would be altered by the initial front of CME 2024-10-01T23:09Z, and from timeline inspection we do see the Earth arrival of the second shock was pushed from 2024-10-05T21:03Z (1-CME simulation) to 2024-10-05T17:00Z (2-CME simulation). All directly listed impacts to locations are from the initial front, as both fronts did not combine, except for Juno where the fronts combine somewhat and appear to enhance the ongoing stream beginning there around 2024-10-13T18:00Z. Submitted on 2024-10-03T19:43Z by Tony Iampietro No Notification has been sent for this activity yet. |
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