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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2024-10-03T19:30Z
Model Inputs: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-19.0, Lat.=-10.0, Speed=594.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-10-02T04:22Z 2024-10-02T06:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-15.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=356.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2024-10-02T15:50Z 2024-10-02T14:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=437.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-10-02T21:17Z 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=822.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2024-10-03T16:43Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-10-04T20:19Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -34.6 hr] Duration of disturbance (hr) = 32.0 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=5 (kp)135=6 (kp)180=7 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-04T19:23Z STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-05T20:44Z [PE: 1.2 hr] Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_042500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Note : This is a 4-CME bulk simulation to determine if CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z associated with an X9.0-class solar flare would be altered by the initial fronts of CMEs 2024-10-01T23:09Z, 2024-10-02T06:36Z, and 2024-10-02T14:24Z. From timeline inspection and comparison with the single simulation of CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z by itself, we do see the Earth arrival associated with CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z pushed from 2024-10-06T04:30Z (1-CME simulation) to 2024-10-06T01:30Z (4-CME simulation). This earlier arrival is added to CME Scoreboard. All directly listed impacts to locations on DONKI are from the initial fronts associated with CMEs 2024-10-01T23:09Z, 2024-10-02T06:36Z, and 2024-10-02T14:24Z as both fronts did not combine. Submitted on 2024-10-03T19:47Z by Chris Stubenrauch No Notification has been sent for this activity yet. |
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