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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2024-10-08T00:10Z
Model Inputs: 2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=26.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=1345.0, HalfAngle=48.0, Time21.5=2024-10-07T23:19Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-10-09T18:09Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) = 27.9 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=7 (kp)135=8 (kp)180=9 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-09T14:49Z Mars with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-10T22:58Z STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2024-10-09T15:31Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241007_231900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Note : This simulation is based on an associated measurement of the CME shock taken to support solar energetic particle modeling activities, and as such, is not an approximation of the source location of the CME. This simulation should not be used for trajectory analysis nor used to estimate geomagnetic impacts to Earth, as it strongly overestimates impacts to Earth. For trajectory analysis, please see: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CMEAnalysis/33830/2 Submitted on 2024-10-08T00:32Z by Chris Stubenrauch No Notification has been sent for this activity yet. |
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