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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2025-01-22T21:45Z
Model Inputs: 2025-01-21T10:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=-31.0, Speed=646.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2025-01-21T16:17Z 2025-01-22T11:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=626.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2025-01-22T16:49Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-01-24T10:09Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) = 17.8 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.7 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=4 (kp)135=5 (kp)180=6 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with estimated shock arrival time 2025-01-26T03:31Z Solar Orbiter with estimated shock arrival time 2025-01-24T04:16Z STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2025-01-24T22:49Z [PE: -3.5 hr] Europa Clipper with estimated shock arrival time 2025-01-25T22:00Z (Minor Impact) Mars with estimated shock arrival time 2025-01-26T13:00Z (Minor Impact) Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250121_161800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif Note : 2-CME simulation to determine if CME 21/10:53Z would alter the arrival of following CME 22/11:36Z. Based on the comparing this multi-CME timeline to each single-CME timeline for Earth, CME 22/11:36Z may be expected to arrive separately at Earth around 2025-01-25T07:00Z (+- 7 hours), 3 hours earlier than its single simulated impact time at 2025-01-25T10:13Z (+- 7 hours). The multi-CME simulation initial impact of CME 21/10:53Z at 2025-01-24T10:09Z (+- 7 hours) is also 4 hours later than its single-CME simulation time at 2025-01-24T06:54Z (+- 7 hours), this could be due to this simulation using a different, later magnetogram than the single-CME run. Additionally, only CME 2025-01-22T11:36Z is expected to impact STEREO A out of both CMEs. Submitted on 2025-01-22T22:13Z by Tony Iampietro No Notification has been sent for this activity yet. |
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