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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2025-08-31T00:23Z

Model Inputs:
2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=25.0, Speed=878.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T03:50Z
2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=1303.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T22:41Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-09-01T18:24Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -2.0 hr]
Duration of disturbance (hr) = 25.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0
Possible Kp index:
(kp)90=7
(kp)135=8
(kp)180=9

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with estimated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T18:28Z
STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T08:00Z (Glancing Blow) [PE: -34.0 hr]

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note :
Both CME fronts combine for impacts to Earth and OSIRIS-APEX. The flank of the CMEs do not combine prior to passing STEREO A, creating 2 passes in the timeline at 2025-09-01T08:00Z (+- 7 hours) and 2025-09-02T00:00Z (+- 7 hours). 
Version 1 submitted on 2025-08-31T00:34Z by Tony Iampietro
A Notification with ID 20250831-AL-001 was sent on 2025-08-31T01:32Z
A Notification with ID 20250901-AL-001 was sent on 2025-09-01T13:01Z


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